Post relocated to odedniv.me/blog/shower/definition-of-risk, go there for an updated version.
Danger is measured by the probability of getting hurt. What we call a ‘dangerous situation’ is generally a situation with a high probability of getting hurt. The two facts below can be used to prove that this probability resolves into exact numbers rather than magic.
1. Your control over your surroundings is limited, which makes anything except your direct actions compute like any other force of nature, which can be considered predetermined (arguments aside).
This can be explained with a few simple examples, starting with the roads: No matter how carefully you drive, there are always other drivers around you. Each driver is as careful as he/she would like to be. The exact chances of getting hurt are partially determined by the amount of crazy drivers on your route, which is a predetermined figure from your perspective (you cannot control that). Now for the rest of the promised examples:
- When you walk down the street, the amount of bandits determine the amount of danger;
- When you stay at home, the amount of earthquakes determine the amount of danger;
- When you sail, the amount of storms determine the amount of danger;
All of the above can be computed prematurely (as hard as it may be), without your control.
2. The chances of getting hurt are exactly proportional to the amount of times you get in the same dangerous situation.
A plane crash may sound out of the passenger’s hands, because the only thing he/she could do about it is not getting on the plane in the first place. However, since there was no way for him to know about the crash, there is no logical reason for him to do that.
But what if I told you that the odds of getting killed after boarding that plane are 1 in 5 million (the accuracy of this number is irrelevant, only the point is). This means that boarding two random planes gives a chance of 1 in 2.5m, and boarding 5 million planes will most likely get you killed.
It’s always easier to imagine smaller numbers, so think of it this way: If one out of two planes is destined to crash, 100 passengers boarding each flight will mean a hundred casualties. If all 200 people would board both flights — all 200 of them will surely perish, therefor increasing the chances exactly proportional to the amount of times they put themselves in that risky situation.
However it may seem, keeping yourself behind closed doors is not the conclusion here. Inaction is only a far too simplistic way of explaining the measurement system of danger.
The important part lies in the details: if you know about a possible malfunction in 1 of these 10 planes, boarding 5 instead of all 10 would double your chances, but boarding the 5 planes operated by the safest airlines would improve your chances even further without missing another flight. Maintaining safe distance from other cars improve your chances on the road just by knowing about the possible danger, without reducing your mileage (although the latter would also work).
